Without exception, the leaders who I coach are grappling with complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing contexts. Our work together is often about finding a way forward through what feels like a fog. There’s significant uncertainty at the global level (the as yet unknown impact of a second Trump presidency, ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, the emerging power of artificial intelligence.) And leaders are facing uncertainty at a more local level in the form of factors such as inflationary pressures, regulatory changes, the emergence of new competitors, shifting employee attitudes about work.
Humans find uncertainty hard; our brains are wired to avoid the unexpected and prefer certainty. Neuroscientist David Rock argues that threats to our certainty can be neurologically as painful as a physical attack. Leading against a backdrop of uncertainty can sometimes be exciting, energising, and stretching, but it can also be exhausting, anxiety-provoking, and confidence-sapping.
So what helps? I have five suggestions for leading with confidence in uncertain times.
Distinguish being a ‘learner’ from being an ‘imposter’
Uncertainty can act as an invitation for feelings of self-doubt: “I don’t know how to deal with this situation… but I should know.” This is flawed thinking. A more realistic take would be “I don’t know how to deal with this situation because it’s new to all of us.” Try to let go of the “should” that feeds a feeling of being an imposter and instead embrace your ability to be curious and to learn. Accept that everyone is learning and finding their way forward through the fog. Build partnerships with others (inside the organisation and beyond) to compare observations and to accelerate your shared learning.
Get comfortable with not knowing
As Shakespeare tells us: “the fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.” My second suggestion is to get comfortable with saying “I don’t know.” It’s a powerful phrase that is often under-utilised by leaders. It’s an acknowledgement of the complexity in the context and a demonstration of humility. To be very clear: I am not advocating “I don’t know” as an excuse for incompetence or poor performance. “I don’t know” is OK when it means “this is a complex situation and I don’t yet have a clear sense of what is needed.” It’s not OK when it means “I’m not across the detail of my part of the business” or “I’m not investing in keeping my knowledge up to date.”
Offer grounded optimism
I hear people at many levels in organisations saying things like “the executive team needs to give more clarity” or “what is the top priority?” It’s an appetite for clarity that’s impossible to satiate – the clarity and certainty that is being requested is simply impossible to provide, and that can be tough for leaders. Suggestion three is to resist the invitation to be definitive in your communication. Be open with the team about the ‘fog’ and unpredictability of the context, and convey positivity about the organisation’s capacity to navigate this uncertainty. Not wild delusion, but grounded optimism. Grounded optimism might sound like this: “we’ve faced new challenges many times before and together we’ve figured out a way forward. I know that we can do that again.” Reminding yourself of what has been achieved before can boost confidence – for you and for your team.
Embrace experimentation
In the face of uncertainty, it can be tempting to reach for the comfort and reassurance of a clear plan. Whilst a plan is a good starting point, an ambiguous context means that constant adaptation will be required. Think experimentation rather than implementation: trying things, learning as you go and being prepared to let go of your plan. The process of experimentation isn’t new. Almost a century ago, in a 1932 speech, US President Franklin D Roosevelt said “The country needs bold, persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it: if it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.” Roosevelt sometimes exasperated his advisors by putting forward multiple – and occasionally conflicting – projects, but his experimental approach ultimately worked. What’s your level of comfort with the messy, non-linear nature of experimentation? How willing are you to set aside your plan?
Seek out development
My final suggestion is simple: seek out development, choose to constantly learn. By developing your skills, your thinking and your perspective on the world, you’ll become better equipped to respond to the never-before-seen situations. You’ll become more adept at navigating uncertainty.
We can aim to speak clearly, we can set (and constantly reassess) priorities, we can encourage experimentation across our teams. Whilst all of this is helpful, it will not banish uncertainty – because banishing uncertainty is impossible. As leaders we must let go of the fantasy that we have the power to create certainty and instead find ways for ourselves and our teams to operate more comfortably within a context that will continue to be complex, unpredictable and uncertain.
