The 2026 World Cup presents an unusual economic picture for the UK. While major tournaments are typically associated with packed pubs, bustling city centres and all-day spending, the North American time difference means many of England’s matches will kick off much later in the evening, often 9pm or 10pm UK time. At first glance, that appears to be a challenge for businesses hoping to cash in on football fever. In reality, it is more likely to change where and when money is spent rather than eliminate spending altogether.
For hospitality businesses, the timing is undoubtedly a double-edged sword. A late kick-off takes away the classic “after-work rush” and much of the traditional pre-match trade generated by supporters leaving work early and heading straight to the pub. That 5pm to 8pm window, which in previous tournaments delivered a reliable surge in drink and food sales, will be significantly quieter.
Turning later kick-offs into economic opportunity
At the same time, there are reasons for optimism. The government’s decision to relax licensing rules for key World Cup knockout matches, allowing eligible pubs to remain open until as late as 2am, creates an opportunity to capture the late wave rather than the early crowd. Instead of serving customers from 5pm onwards, pubs may shift their focus towards the build-up before kick-off, the match itself and crucially, the post-match surge that follows.
Industry forecasts suggest substantial spending remains at stake. The British Beer and Pub Association estimates that each pub could sell an extra 1,240 pints per England match, rising to 55 million additional pints nationally if England reaches the final. More broadly, hospitality spending during the tournament is forecast to reach £898 million, more than double the £442 million generated during the 2022 World Cup. That highlights an important point: while the timing may alter consumer behaviour, it does not necessarily weaken demand. Football remains one of the few events capable of bringing millions of people together around a shared experience, and businesses that successfully adapt to changing viewing habits may still benefit significantly.
Retail boost vs economic boom
The beneficiaries may ultimately be different from those seen during previous tournaments. Instead of packed city-centre pubs, the action may shift into kitchens, living rooms and delivery apps. The “watch at home” experience has become increasingly popular in recent years. Consumers are now accustomed to ordering food through delivery apps, streaming sporting events from multiple devices and creating their own viewing occasions with friends and family. Late kick-offs may reinforce these habits further. Rather than travelling into city centres late at night, many supporters may choose to stock up on food and drink in advance and watch from the comfort of their own living rooms.
As a result, supermarkets, convenience stores and food delivery platforms could emerge as some of the tournament’s biggest winners. Retail spending linked to the World Cup is forecast to reach £2.9 billion, representing an 81% increase compared with 2022. Combined retail and hospitality spending is expected to total around £3.8 billion across the tournament. In short, the party does not stop; it just moves indoors.
It is important not to confuse activity with additionality. Not all World Cup spending represents a net gain for the economy. Much of it is likely to be displaced from other leisure and retail spending.
Money spent on takeaway food, alcohol or even new televisions may otherwise have been spent elsewhere in the economy. The significance of the tournament therefore lies less in creating new spending and more in concentrating existing spending into specific sectors, moments and behaviours.
The productivity challenge
Productivity concerns are mixed. With most live viewing outside working hours, employers face less disruption from early departures. There will be no mass exodus of staff at 2pm ahead of a 3pm kick-off. No sudden spike in half-day holiday requests. For many HR managers, that is welcome relief compared to daytime tournaments.
Yet the later kick-off times introduce different challenges. England matches that finish close to midnight, particularly if they go to extra time or penalties, may leave many supporters facing a short night’s sleep before returning to work the following morning. Some estimates suggest that up to 3.6 million additional sick days could be taken during the tournament, generating around £94 million in sick-pay costs.
Beyond formal absence lies the issue of presenteeism, where employees attend work but perform below their normal productivity levels because of fatigue. One widely cited estimate puts the associated productivity loss at approximately £681 million. For employers, therefore, the challenge is less about managing football during working hours and more about managing its after-effects. Some organisations may choose to embrace flexible working arrangements or adjusted schedules during key matches to help minimise disruption while maintaining employee engagement and morale.
Why England’s performance matters the most
Ultimately, the biggest variable remains England’s performance. A group-stage exit would change the picture entirely. Deep tournament runs, by contrast, tend to prolong spending opportunities. Each additional knockout round creates another focal point for social gatherings, hospitality spending and retail purchases, extending the economic tail of the tournament.
Historical experience suggests that success on the pitch can also generate a broader feel-good factor that encourages discretionary spending and supports consumer confidence. The World Cup’s economic impact is therefore unlikely to be absent; it will simply look different, arriving later, flowing through different sectors, and concentrated in fewer, bigger moments rather than spread evenly across afternoons and early evenings. The economy does not miss the World Cup; it just turns up at a different hour.
Dr Charles Nimoh is a macroeconomist at the University of Salford, specialising in international trade, economic policy and the impact of major global events on business performance. His research examines how geopolitical and cultural moments shape consumer behaviour and commercial outcomes for SMEs.
